Shiller price index – Trojan Estate Tue, 19 Oct 2021 14:45:54 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Shiller price index – Trojan Estate 32 32 Credit Suisse reiterates its ESG investment strategy Mon, 18 Oct 2021 13:21:21 +0000

Swiss credit reiterated its key investment strategy for environmental, social and governance investors.

Evaluating 17 sustainable themes, the bank said that based on its current quality and dynamism scores, automation, building energy efficiency, aging and industrial energy quality were “the most important themes. attractive compared to the 13 other themes ”.

Infrastructures, hydrogen, wind power and solar power were the least attractive in terms of quality and dynamism.

Credit Suisse said: “Virtually all of our themes saw a downturn in the last month. Interestingly, we find that energy storage and wind are the two top performing themes. In the case of energy storage We note that the theme is benefiting from a positive change in average momentum scores, as well as having a majority of its constituents seeing analysts upgrades to their 12-month EPS estimates.

“Wind, on the other hand, has the second lowest share of companies seeing their profits increase, at 29%.” Education was the lowest at 22%.

“Investors interested in companies with strong support for earnings revisions should take a look at our water theme,” the bank added.

He concluded: “The topics that trade with the highest premium over history are energy storage, solar and wind stocks. for the first time.

“The themes that have seen the biggest drop in price-benefit terms over the past six months include the circular economy – plastics, energy efficiency in transport and energy efficiency in buildings.”

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Home prices in the area exceed the US average Sun, 17 Oct 2021 11:01:03 +0000

Home prices in the Dallas area have jumped nearly 24% and topped state and national gains in the latest national survey, as reported in weekly real estate updates by Allie Beth Allman & Associates.

July’s annualized increase of 23.7% exceeded the 19.7% national average gain in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. July was the fourth month in a row that the growth rate reached an all-time high. Home prices in the Dallas area have climbed more than 45% in the past five years.

Meanwhile, Golden State officials believe they have an answer to the limited and costly housing problem in their state: They will simply put more people on even less land, a spokesperson for Allman said. California Governor Gavin Newsom recently signed a law allowing duplexes to be built on most properties with one house. The median price of a home in California rose 144% (from 2000 to 2019) to reach $ 591,866. Local officials had opposed the legislation because they said it removed too much local zoning control and would not address the issue of affordable housing.

DFW home building permits were down 14% in August from a year ago. Texas A&M University’s Texas Real Estate Research Center said it was the first drop in single-family home permits in more than a year and the most annualized declines since 2019.

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The demand for second homes has plummeted. Should you buy yours now? Sat, 16 Oct 2021 11:00:23 +0000

At several points in the pandemic, demand for second homes has skyrocketed. But recently, buyers seem to have lost interest or patience (or maybe both).

In August, demand for second homes fell 19.3% from a year earlier, according to Redfin. This marks the third consecutive month of decline.

But the demand for second homes is still higher than pre-pandemic levels. The COVID-19 crisis has prompted many people who can afford another home to buy a place to escape. And with mortgage rates near record lows, it’s easy to see why so many buyers rushed to buy second homes earlier this year.

In fact, vacation home sales accounted for 6.7% of overall existing home sales between January and April 2021. That’s up from 5% in 2019, according to the National Association of Realtors.

If you are thinking about buying a second home, you might be wondering if now is the time to move on. The answer? It is complicated.

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The advantage of buying a second home now

The fact that the demand for second homes has decreased could work to your advantage as a buyer. The less competition you have, the less likely you are to find yourself in a bidding war with other buyers for the same property. And that means you could end up paying a little less for the house you buy.

Plus, while mortgage rates aren’t quite at all-time lows, they’re pretty darn competitive on their own. And if you have a great credit score, you’ll have an even better chance of getting an affordable mortgage that will make your second home easier to pay off.

The downside of buying a second home now

While the demand for second homes may be on the decline and mortgage rates are still very attractive, house prices are on the rise. And that alone could wipe out any savings you’ll make by locking in on an affordable mortgage rate.

In July, home prices rose 19.7% from a year earlier, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. This is a record for the index.

Now let’s think about popular vacation areas. In many of them, the inventory of available accommodation is limited. Sellers can choose to take advantage of this and list their homes for very high prices, so at the end of the day you could end up paying even more.

Make the right call

Where does it all leave you as a buyer? It depends.

If you can find a second home at an affordable price then maybe now is a good time to buy, especially if you are able to get a low mortgage rate and don’t find yourself in a war. auction. But if you’re still having trouble navigating the real estate market, you might want to wait.

Right now, the housing stock is low across the board, and this extends to second homes. If you wait a bit, say until mid-2022, you might find that there are more options to choose from. You may also find that house prices go down for this reason.

Mortgage rates are expected to remain low for much of next year. So, if your current search for a second home isn’t working out very well, waiting to buy one might be the best solution.

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September real estate news: the suburbs are hot and the city center is coming back Fri, 15 Oct 2021 16:19:47 +0000

a lot trends that have been unfolding since the start of the pandemic lockdowns continue: a central location is less of a priority and the suburbs are heating up more than ever. But as amenities return to denser urban areas and some return to offices, downtown condos are back on the rise – and the market is likely only to get more competitive from here.

The story isn’t entirely straightforward, and won’t be for a while. Since sales are reliably different every month of every year, year-over-year statistics tend to be more revealing for things like selling prices and market demand. But 2020 was, to say the least, bonkers. There is still a lot to be learned from last month’s numbers.

King County’s pockets are growing, but prices in outlying areas are rising much faster – a trend that began long before the pandemic but has increased as shoppers have turned away from the city. King County saw a 6.7% increase in median selling price from this period in 2020, according to the North West Multiple Enrollment Service, while Pierce, Kitsap and Snohomish counties saw their prices increase from 16.6% to 18.4%. Almost everywhere is on fire in these three counties, but a few areas where high prices meet high sales include northern Pierce County around Fife and Sumner and southern parts of Tacoma. Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate, also notes massive changes at Mountlake Terrace.

There are a few factors at play: Many businesses only require a partial return to the office, and it’s easier to have a lousy commute for three days than five. Because you get more house for less money, some buyers, Gardner says, have been able to pay everything in cash from the profits they made by selling a house closer to town.

That’s not to say that more central locations don’t have their moments. Northeast Seattle, with its new light rail stations, is cooling down again after a frantic year. But in terms of price, most of King County’s hotspots are outside Seattle: the Eastside saw a 22.6% increase in selling prices, particularly concentrated in the Newcastle and Issaquah area and in Kirkland. Outside the luxury highlands, Renton’s selling prices jumped 20.2%, with an even bigger increase in sales closing at 34.7%.

A radical change for downtown condos

As people searched for more space, condo prices remained pretty stagnant throughout the year, especially in Seattle. But with so many reasons to live downtown return – offices, entertainment, bars, restaurants – well-paying shoppers are returning. Data from the NWMLS shows pending sales increased 36.7% in downtown and Belltown, and closed sales climbed 126%.

But demand has never wavered, and those sales numbers aren’t even the highest this year. During the spring and summer, prices in the area plummeted, but demand continued to rise as downtown living became more affordable for many overpriced people. While this ship has pretty much sailed now — kudos to anyone who bought before this month — it adds more economic diversity to the downtown area in the longer term.

“What we saw when the pandemic hit was a massive increase in supply,” says Gardner. “There were a lot of fears that people would be fleeing the city center because of the coronavirus and that it would cause a market collapse. ” When condo prices started to adjust in response to high inventory and low demand, he notes, something different happened.

“I think there were a lot of people who, before the pandemic, had always wanted to move downtown, but they couldn’t afford it,” he explains. “And all of a sudden we started to see that this price [change] happen, all of a sudden they might. So that demand has been met.

Yet after months of increasing sales, inventories are starting to shrink, which could push prices up further. Although from the outside it looks like new condos are being built all the time, most of these builds are luxury rentals. With high construction costs and an uncertain market, developers and builders are holding back more than usual, says Dean Jones, CEO of Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty.

“I think we’re heading into another year of ascension where there will only be more people coming downtown and there will be a very limited amount of supply,” he says. Two condominiums are currently on presale, and once those units are completed and occupied in 2022, he believes it will “likely take several years” for any significant supply of new apartments or condos to return.

These year-over-year changes are compared to a truly appalling 2020 for condos, and we still have a pretty uncertain future in terms of having to leave home. But at the very least, the numbers indicate that the city center is returning to something much closer to its pre-pandemic state, for better or for worse.

Of course, condo sales aren’t limited to downtown, but few other Seattle neighborhoods have the same sample size. West Seattle in particular is plunging condo prices: Despite an overall 6.8% increase in the median selling price, condo prices have fallen nearly 10% since the same period last year. Condo prices are up in Northwest Seattle neighborhoods like Fremont, Greenlake and Ballard, with a 10.5% jump in median selling price.

Elsewhere, beach houses leave a mark

Some took advantage of more work-from-home opportunities to ditch city life altogether – and many of them apparently ran to the beach. Closed sales along the Pacific coast increased significantly in the spring, and although buying declined, prices did not fall. Pacific County, which includes Long Beach, has seen its prices rise more than 40% year-over-year every month since July. Other coastal communities have seen dramatic changes: Jefferson County, which includes Port Townsend, continues its strong year-round increases to 20.7%. Clallam County, which contains Port Angeles, Sequim and Neah Bay, experienced its biggest jump of the year this month at 29.7%.

While you thought San Juan County would work with this pack, this market has already exploded a bit too much hard. After a frenzied 146% increase in sales and a 47.3% price hike in April, things have finally calmed down, with closings down 46.1% and prices flat.

The big picture of real estate

How fast is Seattle growing compared to other regions? The Case-Shiller Home Price Index calculates numbers for metropolitan areas across the country, and although they’re lagging behind by a few months, it can give a broader picture of what the city looks like on the national scene. Figures for July were released in late September, and the Seattle area recorded the third-highest year-over-year increase in house prices against other major metropolitan areas, at 25.5%, from a 19.7% increase nationwide.

What about the rent?

There’s more of the same in the rental market: bigger jumps outside of Seattle than inside. List of apartments Calculates a 12% increase in Seattle’s rent from the same time last year, but surrounding areas are seeing even bigger changes, including Kent, Everett, Redmond, Bothell and Lynnwood. Tacoma and Bellevue both increased by almost 19%.

While Seattle rent is always higher than Renton or Kent, rents are significantly higher in Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, Bothell and Issaquah.

You have to take rental data with a bigger grain of salt than sales data – the record keeping requirements are much less stringent, and there isn’t a lot of cold, hard data to work with. Companies that calculate monthly data are biased toward numbers in larger luxury buildings, but this is still useful for examining overall trends, especially if the source compares the data to more reliable (but slower) census data.

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It’s America’s most risky housing market – 24/7 Wall St. Thu, 14 Oct 2021 11:30:47 +0000

The US real estate market has not been this healthy for decades, if ever. The carefully tracked S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index has shown house prices have gone up nearly 20% in July, which was a record in the history of the study. In some cities, this figure was closer to 30%.

Several factors have driven up house prices. One is certainly the extremely low mortgage rates, which are close to 3% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. Another is that the incomes of the middle and upper class have not suffered much from the pandemic. Yet another is the new mobility of Americans, who want to move from expensive coastal cities to others with a lower cost of living and a better quality of life. This, in turn, has been helped by the fact that millions of people will not be returning to traditional offices.

Not all markets have seen strong increases in home prices. Some have been exceptionally affected by the pandemic.

These areas have above-average foreclosure rates and shares of homes with above-average underwater mortgages, meaning that the value of outstanding loans exceeds the total value of the property. Some of these markets are also much less affordable than average, with high home ownership costs relative to local incomes.

Based on an index of these three measures (foreclosure rate, share of underwater mortgages and affordability) at the county level, 24/7 Wall St. identified the most risky housing markets. All data has been compiled from the Q1 2021 Coronavirus Special Report on the Sensitivity of County-Level Housing Markets to Risks Arising from the Coronavirus Pandemic from ATTOM Data Solutions, a real estate and property data company .

Many of the counties we looked at are in the eastern United States, from Florida to the mid-Atlantic, and New England. The pandemic has wreaked above-average economic and public health devastation in some of these counties.

“The pandemic remains significant and may pose a threat to progress made so far, and by extension could affect home sales and prices,” Todd Teta, product manager at ATTOM, said in a press release. Indeed, the housing market is booming, but many American homeowners remain vulnerable.

To determine the most sensitive housing market in America, 24/7 Wall St. ranked counties based on a composite index of the percentage of residential properties that were foreclosed on in the first quarter of 2021. , the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the main expenses of owning a median-priced home in the first quarter of 2021 and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances above their estimated market value in the fourth quarter of 2021. 2020 (i.e. underwater mortgages). All components of the index come from ATTOM Data Solutions and have been weighted equally. Supplementary data on unemployment and the labor force are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and are not seasonally adjusted.

The most risky housing market is Sussex County, New Jersey. Here are the details:

  • Location: New York-Newark-Jersey City metropolitan area
  • Median home selling price: $ 293,545 (+ 30.5% year-over-year increase)
  • Typical homeownership costs as a percentage of median income: 40.6%
  • Dwellings with underwater mortgages: 7,646 (18.3% of dwellings with loans)
  • Homes with Foreclosure Filings: 45

Click here to see all of the most risky housing markets.

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The price of Bitcoin is correcting, but what does the futures data show? Tue, 12 Oct 2021 17:05:00 +0000

Bitcoin had underperformed most altcoins over the past two months, but that trend reversed when its 20% rally pushed its market cap to cross the $ 1,000 billion mark on October 6. . This brought the attention of investors back to the main cryptocurrency and altcoins. are currently in the red for the day.

The current positive momentum could be dangerous if Bitcoin (BTC) traders become overconfident and abuse their leverage to open long positions. To avoid this, traders should carefully analyze derivative markets to rule out this risk.

Top 14 weekly coin performance. Source: CoinMarketCap

Notice above how the market cap of altcoin rose 5.8%, while Bitcoin posted a gain of 20.8% over the same time frame. Sure enough, there were outliers such as Shiba Inu (SHIB), which rose 200%, Fantom (FTM), which rose 60%, and Klaytn (KLAY), which gained 36%. However, the overall market capitalization of altcoins did not accompany Bitcoin’s performance.

Some well-known figures have spoken out, such as billionaire Wall Street investor Bill Miller, who recently expressed his optimism for Bitcoin while raising concerns about most altcoin projects. Miller explicitly mentioned the “big banks” getting involved and referred to “huge amounts” of venture capital money going into Bitcoin.

The recent Bitcoin frenzy appears to be driven by the macroeconomic scenario. The United States has increased its debt limit by $ 480 billion to repay its obligations until early December. Inflationary pressures induced by endless stimulus packages and low interest rates fueled the long rally in commodities.

For example, oil hit its highest level in seven years and wheat futures recently hit an all-time high since February 2013. Even the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a gain. annualized 23.3%.

To understand if Bitcoin traders have become overly excited, traders need to analyze Bitcoin derivatives indicators like the premium of futures markets and asymmetry of options.

Futures premium shows traders are slightly bullish

The base rate measures the difference between long-term futures contracts and current spot market levels. This indicator is also often referred to as a term premium.

Bitcoin 3-month futures on an annualized basis. Source: Laevitas

An annualized premium of 5% to 15% is expected in healthy markets, which is a situation known as “contango”. This price difference is due to the fact that sellers are asking for more money to withhold payment for longer.

Bitcoin’s recent 20% price rally has caused the indicator to hit the upper limit of this neutral zone, meaning investors are bullish but not yet overconfident. Anytime buyers ask for excessive leverage, the base rate can easily exceed 25%, as seen in mid-May.

To exclude the externalities specific to the futures instrument, it is also necessary to analyze the options markets.

Bitcoin options signal ‘neutral’ sentiment

The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and sell (put) options. This metric will turn positive whenever “fear” prevails, as traders expect a potential drop.

The reverse is true when options traders are bullish, causing the 25% delta asymmetry indicator to go into the negative zone. Readings between -8% and + 8% are generally considered neutral.

Deribit BTC options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas

The chart above shows that there has not been a single case of options traders becoming overconfident in the past six months, which would signal ‘greed’ as the 25% delta asymmetry fell. below -8%. Meanwhile, the indicator has been near 0 over the past week, showing balanced risks between bears and bulls.

These findings inevitably reflect a lack of confidence on the part of buyers, but quite the opposite. If the Bitcoin bulls had already been overconfident at $ 57,000, there would be little room for additional leverage, which would increase the risk of a cascading sell-off if a momentary price correction occurred.

The bulls are modestly confident, and even a 20% price correction is unlikely to change the situation as the base futures market rate posts a reasonable premium after the recent rally.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trade move involves risk. You should do your own research before making a decision.