Shiller price index

The Week Ahead – June 24, 2022

Australia: End of financial year 2022

It’s time for investors to get their tax house in order and make their resolutions for the new fiscal year as the June 30 deadline approaches. On the data ledger, retail spending, job vacancies and house prices headline the Australian economic calendar.

The week begins on Tuesday, when the results of the weekly consumer sentiment survey are released by ANZ and Roy Morgan.

Also on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases an assortment of 2021 census data. The ABS also releases population figures for December 2021, with births, deaths and migration updates for States and territories.

On Wednesday, the ABS provides a first estimate of retail trade in May. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists expect retail spending to decline 1.0% in May as increasingly cautious consumers react to inflationary pressures and interest rates.

On Thursday, the ABS releases two reports: Job Openings and Technical Construction Activity. Total job postings hit a record high of 423,500 in February, and strong hiring activity likely continued through May with a 6.0% increase expected.

Also on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) releases the “Financial Aggregates” release, including credit to the private sector figures. Credit may have increased by 0.5% in May.

And to kick off July, CoreLogic releases its June home value index on Friday. National house prices could fall by around 0.7%, led by lower prices in Sydney and Melbourne. But property prices continue to rise in Adelaide and Brisbane.

Also on Friday, S&P Global and the Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) release separate survey results detailing activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector. Overseas: Chinese business surveys and US inflation data dominate

In the coming week, investors will focus their attention on surveys of Chinese purchasing managers and the release of the US Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. basic.

But the week starts Monday in China with the release of industrial earnings figures for May.

In the U.S. on Monday, pending home sales data is released along with the durable goods orders report and the
Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index. Pending home sales are expected to fall 4.5% in May, which could be the seventh consecutive monthly decline, as a sharp rise in mortgage rates adds to affordability concerns. But new orders for long-lived or durable goods may have edged up 0.1% in May.

On Tuesday, the Johnson Redbook chain’s weekly store sales report is released with anticipated merchandise trade
balance, wholesale and retail inventories, Conference Board consumer confidence index and Richmond index
Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index. According to economists, the goods trade deficit is expected to widen from US$106.7 billion to US$102 billion in May. And the consumer sentiment gauge could plunge from 106.4 to 100 points in June.

Also on Tuesday, two key house price measures are scheduled for April. Federal Housing Funding
Both the FHFA House Price Index and the S&P/CoreLogic Case-Shiller House Price Indicator are published.
According to S&P Case-Shiller, its home price index in 20 cities rose a record 21.2% in the year to March. But a deceleration in house prices is expected this year as housing borrowing costs rise.

On Wednesday, US economic growth data is released along with weekly mortgage application data from the
Mortgage Bankers Association. In the third estimate for the March quarter, GDP likely fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% due to a jump in imports, a drop in exports and a slower build up of oil stocks. companies.

On Thursday in China, the Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) are released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The end of the Shanghai Covid lockdown and an easing of virus control measures in Beijing are expected to lead to an upturn in economic activity in May. Economists expect modest growth in manufacturing and services PMIs.

On Thursday in the US, the usual weekly US jobless claims data (first jobless claims) will be released along with the Chicago PMI for the month of June. The latter may have fallen from 60.3 to 59.1.

Also on Thursday, the most important data on personal spending and income are released. Economists expect spending and income to rise 0.5% in May. But all eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator – the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index or deflator. The measure, which excludes food and energy prices, was higher than that of the US central bank.
target range of 2% for a 13th consecutive month to 4.9% on the year to April. The core PCE deflator may have increased by 0.5% in May.

On Friday in China, Caixin releases the private sector manufacturing gauge for June.

And on Friday in the US, construction spending data is released alongside manufacturing PMIs from S&P Global and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM).

Originally posted by Ryan Felsman, Senior Economist, @CommSec